Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 0.281217 0.325369 0.373453 0.429613 0.493305 0.563191 0.645576
2025-06-29 0.204682 0.259257 0.323553 0.404540 0.503441 0.619881 0.766910
2025-07-06 0.151120 0.208794 0.282015 0.381006 0.510431 0.672881 0.891047
2025-07-13 0.120910 0.181490 0.264030 0.383221 0.549137 0.769821 1.083003
2025-07-20 0.094626 0.154263 0.241385 0.375536 0.573867 0.852584 1.269139
2025-07-27 0.076918 0.135810 0.227782 0.378258 0.613577 0.961479 1.506579
2025-08-03 0.063439 0.121063 0.217043 0.383427 0.657757 1.082953 1.778835
2025-08-10 0.048904 0.101196 0.194286 0.365465 0.663153 1.146799 1.973172
2025-08-17 0.037010 0.083145 0.170950 0.342145 0.655843 1.189337 2.139439
2025-08-24 0.029529 0.071729 0.157258 0.333348 0.671907 1.272149 2.381873
2025-08-31 0.023654 0.062080 0.144921 0.324728 0.686765 1.354547 2.633511
2025-09-07 0.020205 0.056931 0.140680 0.331309 0.731243 1.495178 3.004328
2025-09-14 0.015634 0.047904 0.126477 0.315426 0.730930 1.556716 3.245984
2025-09-21 0.012445 0.041383 0.116446 0.306673 0.743991 1.646009 3.552059
2025-09-28 0.009823 0.035500 0.106496 0.296066 0.751406 1.725342 3.849274
2025-10-05 0.008472 0.032932 0.104402 0.303975 0.801516 1.898786 4.355671
2025-10-12 0.007015 0.029468 0.099013 0.302511 0.829767 2.029739 4.790079
2025-10-19 0.006033 0.027255 0.096629 0.308526 0.877133 2.208526 5.346338
2025-10-26 0.005235 0.025393 0.094826 0.315828 0.929011 2.403945 5.960375
2025-11-02 0.004135 0.021824 0.086620 0.303012 0.927035 2.475144 6.306683
2025-11-09 0.003167 0.018294 0.077415 0.284994 0.907966 2.503242 6.558011
2025-11-16 0.002577 0.016151 0.072385 0.278801 0.920426 2.609631 7.003676
2025-11-23 0.002094 0.014255 0.067644 0.272431 0.931296 2.713382 7.454282